[Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] : rare common sense in mitigating global warming..please see opinion piece from wsj.

Mon Jul 25 13:21:40 PDT 2022

Nothing is settled in Climate science. If so, then there would be an exact number for temperature rise with a doubling of CO2. Estimates are .5 to over 5C. Sounds like the scientists are guessing, just like their failed temperature projections. 

As the world warmed (yes we all agree on this) - Malaria death decreased. Cheap power used to drain swamps, power delivery of insecticides, and clean the environment contributed to this. 
https://ourworldindata.org/malaria-introduction

Lancet has reports that cold kills more than warmth. Do you want to see the world get cold again? It certainly will, eventually, and not to our benefit. There are medical reasons for this.

Not illogical to claim that the ‘Green Elites’ forced Germany to shut down nuclear and coal plants leaving just gas plants - that’s the truth.  Result was Germany outsourcing energy to Russia which has proven to be a big mistake - check their prices for gas and electricity compared to ours. Disaster for Germans this winter. Solar and wind has been a major failure when the wind doesn’t blow and Germany has been importing electricity from nuclear France as England has. Now they are restarting coal plants. 

Shelly Lowenthal

> On Jul 25, 2022, at 4:02 PM, Ted Kochanski <tedpkphd at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> 
> Jerry,
> 
> Lonborg is a true believer in environmentalism as opposed to Catastrophism
> 
> Even the IPCC says that going "cold=turkey" on CO2 would have at best marginal effects on the predictions for 2100
> 
> The whole issue of why the climate varies is still a most open question -- there are known naturally occuring aspects:
> long-term orbital changes [mostly periodic]
> long-term plate tectonic changes of the layout of the continents and oceans
> long-term, large scale volcanism [e.g. Deccan Traps in India, similar flows in Siberia ]
> meteoric impacts
> small-scale short-lived volcanic events [e.gh. Mt. Pinatubo]
> 
> Oceanic Circulation changes:
> Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]
> El Niño–Southern Oscillation [ENSO]
> 
> Oceanic Atmospheric Circulation changes:
> North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]
> Arctic oscillation [AO] aka Northern Annular Mode/Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode [NAM]
>  Antarctic oscillation aka Southern Annular Mode [SAM]
> 
> Solar Activity changes
> Solar brightness
> Solar Magnetic Field extent -- influencing penetration of galactic cosmic rays into the earth's atmosphere
> Solar spectral changes
> 
> Humans have more or less local/regional impacts mostly due to "urban heat islands" and land-use pattern changes
> 
> Finally we have the highly contentious matter of impacts directly caused by human emissions of CO2, CH4, and other lesser "greenhouse gases"
> The effects of these themselves are then "multiplied" by changes in atmospheric water vapor [by far the most prevalent and impactful "greenhouse gas"] -- but this is poorly understood as it is a very complex 3D circulation between ocean water, vertical conveyance by tropical thunderstorms and conveyance poleward by the prevailing westerlies in temperate latitudes with some less well understood interaction with polar ice and snow
> 
> Even the most capable computers can not handle the complete system of processes which we think we understand and apply it to a non-spherical earth [we only include a generic friction parameter to account for things such as small as the Appalachian Mountains] -- and then there are the unknown processes which we have no way of accounting for in the models
> 
> That's predominantly why the modelers compare themselves to each other rather than the "ground truth" -- just look at the "spaghetti plots" produced for tropical storms/hurricanes [some of them have predicted trajectories perpendicular to some of the others]
> 
> Ted
> 
> PS: As someone pointed out all of the carbon buried under Pennsylvania, etc., in the form of Coal, Oil, Natural Gas was once in the atmosphere -- plants don't get the carbon for photosynthesis from the limestone rocks [another amazingly large repository of carbon once in the atmosphere]
> 
> 
> On Mon, Jul 25, 2022 at 2:11 PM Jerry Harris <jerryharri at gmail.com> wrote:
>> Marvin, 
>> I think you've proven my point with Lomborg. It's not just the media that has called out his shifting and inaccurate claims, but real climate scientists have as well. He has long discounted the cost and severity of climate change, striving to spin a silver lining whenever possible:
>> - his claims that rising CO2 levels will increase crop yields
>> - his statement that since more people die in winter months, a warming planet will be good - ignoring that the data includes indirect influenza deaths and that a warming planet will increase malaria deaths
>> - illogically claiming that the elites' "obsession" with climate change lead Germany to become solely reliant on Russian gas pipeline 
>> 
>> I think Lomborg is the human version of the young woman/old woman optical illusion. Some of what he says is sensible and reasonable, and some of what he says is selective and contradictory. With his constant shifts he can always cherry-pick those claims that turn out "right". 
>> 
>> Jerry
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On Sat, Jul 23, 2022 at 8:40 PM Marvin Menzin <mmenzin at icloud.com> wrote:
>>> Fyi.. more on the remedies for warming..
>>> Lomberg does not deny warming.. but he advocates a serious cost benefit analysis on remedies before going whole hog
>>>  
>>> He favors nuclear power, and also believes it is a mistake to   push green power  so fast that it disrupts poorer nations  from  getting richer. 
>>> 
>>> he is one of the few  who challenges rapid disruptive  approaches that harm the prospects for a better life for the worlds poor nations in the name of  rapidly saving the planet..no matter what the bad side effects .  
>>> 
>>> Lomberg has written lots of articles on this theme and is considered controversial in most media.  
>>> 
>>> 
>>>  
>>> Sent from my iPad
>>> 
>>> Begin forwarded message:
>>> 
>>>> From: Marvin Menzin <mmenzin at icloud.com>
>>>> Date: July 23, 2022 at 9:52:33 AM EDT
>>>> To: Isaac Menzin <isaacmenzin at gmail.com>, sammy hepner <sammyhepner at gmail.com>, Joseph Menzin <joemenzin at gmail.com>, Abe Menzin <abemenzin at hotmail.com>, jon menzin <jon.menzin at gmail.com>, sally tyszka <smtyszka at comcast.net>, abby hepner <abbyhepner at gmail.com>, Orly Shitrit <shitrit.orly at gmail.com>, daniel menzin <dmenzin at gmail.com>, Larry Menzin <lmenzin at american-tech.com>, ari menzin <arimenzin at gmail.com>, Marit Menzin <mmenzin at verizon.net>, hannah hepner <hehepner at gmail.com>, adam menzin <menzin24 at yahoo.com>, Marion Menzin <marionmenzin at gmail.com>, Eleanor Menzin <eleanormenzin at hotmail.com>, Roberta Menzin <rmenzin57 at gmail.com>, tara rosenthal <trosenthal429 at yahoo.com>, kobi shitrit <shitrit.kobi at gmail.com>, lev menzin <levmenzin at gmail.com>, David Hepner <dlhepner67 at gmail.com>, jordan menzin <jamenzin at gmail.com>, talia menzin <tjmenzin at gmail.com>, Julie Menzin <julie.a.menzin at gmail.com>, MARGARET MENZIN <menzin at comcast.net>
>>>> Subject: rare common sense in mitigating global warming..
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> A sidewalk in London, July 20.
>>>> By Bjorn Lomborg July 21, 2022 6:36 pm ET
>>>> 
>>>> Photo: andy rain/Shutterstock
>>>> Such arguments are misleading. It’s true that as temperatures rise the world will experience more heat waves, but humans also adapt to such things. In Spain, for example, rising temperatures have actually led to fewer heat deaths, because people have adapted faster than temperatures have gone up. It simply took air conditioning, public cooling centers and better treatment of maladies that are caused or aggravated by heat, such as heatstroke and heart disease.
>>>> 
>>>> The exclusive focus on heat deaths is also misleading. Across the world, low temperatures are much more dangerous than high ones: Half a million people die each year from heat, but more than 4.5 million die from cold. While rising temperatures will increase heat deaths, they will also decrease cold deaths. A recent Lancet study found that rising temperatures since 2000 have on net reduced the number of temperature-related deaths. Researchers concluded that by the end of the 2010s, rising temperatures globally were causing 116,000 more heat deaths annually, but also leading to 283,000 fewer cold deaths a year. 
>>>> 
>>>> Moreover, politicians’ singular focus on climate change ignores that people are much more worried about rampant inflation, especially rising food and energy prices. And climate policies are making those problems worse. 
>>>> 
>>>> Opinion
>>>> Morning Editorial Report
>>>> All the day's Opinion headlines.
>>>> Much of the extreme energy-price increase that normal people are dealing with is caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. But things wouldn’t be nearly as bad if the West hadn’t thrown up green roadblocks to its own energy security, such as President Biden’s moratorium on gas leases or Europe’s refusal to dig into its substantial shale gas reserves. Climate policies also increase energy prices by subsidizing renewables like solar and wind. That makes it even harder to adapt to the extreme temperatures climate activists bemoan. You need cheap and reliable energy to afford air conditioning in the summer and heating in the winter.
>>>> 
>>>> Rising fuel prices are also making food more expensive. Low-cost synthetic fertilizer is one of the greatest technologies humanity has invented for feeding the world, but it’s mostly made with natural gas. Even with almost a billion people at risk of starvation, climate-obsessed bureaucrats still object to producing more fertilizer because of the fossil fuels required. 
>>>> 
>>>> The cost of green policies will become even harder to bear if politicians make good on their promises to hit net-zero emissions. Achieving this globally by 2050 would cost more than $5 trillion a year for the next three decades, according to McKinsey. That would be one-third of total global tax revenue. If every American were to shell out more than $5,000 a year, it would only get the U.S. 80% of the way there by midcentury. Hitting 100% would likely cost more than twice that. The European Union already pays €69 billion a year in subsidies to support its renewables. But if the EU persists with its even stauncher promises of net-zero, that annual climate policy cost is likely to exceed $1 trillion.
>>>> 
>>>> No wonder there’s political pushback to environmental grandstanding. The Netherlands has been roiled by protests since the government mandated in June that nitrogen-oxide and ammonia emissions, which are produced by livestock, must be slashed by 70% to 80% in some parts of the country. As many as 40,000 farmers demonstrated against the measure last month. Holland is among the world’s 10 largest food exporters, and these policies would decimate the country’s agriculture industry while global hunger is rising. 
>>>> 
>>>> Sri Lanka is the epitome of elite environmentalism gone wrong. Pushed to go organic by activists and the World Economic Forum, the government banned synthetic fertilizers in April 2021. Food production collapsed and the currency defaulted. Hungry and outraged citizens launched protests, overran the presidential palace, and forced the government to resign en masse and the president to flee the country.
>>>> 
>>>> It’s entirely possible to help the climate and working families at the same time. The policies to do so are innovation-focused. Policy makers need to recognize that they simply can’t eliminate fossil fuels with current technologies. The world gets almost 80% of its energy from fossil fuels, and even if all current climate policies were fully implemented, by midcentury fossil fuels would still provide more than half of all energy used world-wide, according to the International Energy Agency. Instead of sending energy prices sky-high by trying to force a transition to renewables prematurely, policy makers should focus on funding research to develop clean energy sources that are actually affordable and reliable. And instead of badgering farmers to go organic, governments should invest in research to develop varieties of crops and agricultural practices that deliver higher yields with a smaller environmental footprint. 
>>>> 
>>>> Some of these technologies are already in development. Greater funding could bring them to fruition more quickly and do a lot more to help limit emissions than the policies activists now hawk. These sorts of sensible measures would cost much less than policies like net-zero, leaving more money to meet the world’s many other challenges.
>>>> 
>>>> It’s starting to dawn on some elites that their policies are creating political dangers. Frans Timmermans, the European Commission’s vice president, has said that many millions of Europeans may not be able to heat their homes this winter. This, he concludes, could lead to “very, very strong conflict and strife.”
>>>> 
>>>> He’s right. When people are cold, hungry and broke, they rebel. If the elites continue pushing incredibly expensive policies that are disconnected from the urgent challenges facing most people, we need to brace for chaos.
>>>> 
>>>> Mr. Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus and visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. His latest book is “False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet.”
>>>> 
>>>> WSJ Opinion: Executive Beast Mode and the Democrats’ Apocalyptic Politics
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> Sent from my iPad
>>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> Sent from my iPad
>>> ===============================================
>>> ::The Lexington Computer and Technology Group Mailing List::
>>> Reply goes to sender only; Reply All to send to list.
>>> Send to the list: LCTG at lists.toku.us      Message archives: http://lists.toku.us/private.cgi/lctg-toku.us
>>> To subscribe: email lctg-subscribe at toku.us  To unsubscribe: email lctg-unsubscribe at toku.us
>>> Future and Past meeting information: http://LCTG.toku.us
>>> List information: http://lists.toku.us/listinfo.cgi/lctg-toku.us
>>> This message was sent to jerryharri at gmail.com.
>>> Set your list options: http://lists.toku.us/options.cgi/lctg-toku.us/jerryharri@gmail.com
>> ===============================================
>> ::The Lexington Computer and Technology Group Mailing List::
>> Reply goes to sender only; Reply All to send to list.
>> Send to the list: LCTG at lists.toku.us      Message archives: http://lists.toku.us/private.cgi/lctg-toku.us
>> To subscribe: email lctg-subscribe at toku.us  To unsubscribe: email lctg-unsubscribe at toku.us
>> Future and Past meeting information: http://LCTG.toku.us
>> List information: http://lists.toku.us/listinfo.cgi/lctg-toku.us
>> This message was sent to tedpkphd at gmail.com.
>> Set your list options: http://lists.toku.us/options.cgi/lctg-toku.us/tedpkphd@gmail.com
> ===============================================
> ::The Lexington Computer and Technology Group Mailing List::
> Reply goes to sender only; Reply All to send to list.
> Send to the list: LCTG at lists.toku.us      Message archives: http://lists.toku.us/private.cgi/lctg-toku.us
> To subscribe: email lctg-subscribe at toku.us  To unsubscribe: email lctg-unsubscribe at toku.us
> Future and Past meeting information: http://LCTG.toku.us
> List information: http://lists.toku.us/listinfo.cgi/lctg-toku.us
> This message was sent to shelly.lowenthal at gmail.com.
> Set your list options: http://lists.toku.us/options.cgi/lctg-toku.us/shelly.lowenthal@gmail.com
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.toku.us/pipermail/lctg-toku.us/attachments/20220725/b9c2ee50/attachment.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 212116 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.toku.us/pipermail/lctg-toku.us/attachments/20220725/b9c2ee50/attachment.jpg>