[Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] : rare common sense in mitigating global warming..please see opinion piece from wsj.

[Ted Kochanski]

Jerry, et al

The problem of creating models and testing them against models is the
essence of the issue

None of the models are subjected to even a rudimentary test against actual
data sets

As I proposed more than a decade ago -- spend some time [say 5 years]
developing a model using a base data set [say 5 years]-- then let the model
predict  data into the future [say 5 to 10 years] using [already measured
data sets]
Give the "winner" and a couple of runners-up huge prizes to isolate them
from any "Dirty influences" including: {corporate, government and even
NGO's and their dependencies such as universities who have sold-out to any
of the preceding list} and to allow the winners to continue to refine the
models
I also proposed similar prizes for the development of instrumentation and
necessary processing to collect the data and make it available to everyone
on the planet who might want in on a future version of the model prize or
even an "Einstein" sitting in some tropical rainforest and pondering

Unless we break the "Government--University--Industrial Complex which is
filling and feeding at the trough of Global Catastrophism -- we will be
condemned to destroying the engine which has lifted at least 1/2 the
planet's population out of 19th C life and rescued more than 1B from
Medieval abject subsistence life

Meanwhile we need to incentivize Nuclear and Thermonuclear energy as we can
not build a modern western-level of lifestyle around wind and solar even
with a lot of expensive storage

As for Catastrophism -- I use it mostly in Rhetorical sense to describe the
"Chicken Littles" of the world such as Gretta and Al Gore neither of whom
would know a Hadley Cell from an Onion Skin nor a Geological Trap from a
Mouse Trap

Ted



On Tue, Jul 26, 2022 at 10:23 AM Jerry Harris <jerryharri at gmail.com> wrote:

> Ted,
> That's quite the extensive list of everything that affects global climate
> - from cosmic rays to meteors. Yet, inexplicably, man-made impacts are
> definitively only regional.
>
> As for the complexity of replicating on computers something as complex as
> the Earth's atmospheric, oceanic, and land mass systems, that's the point
> of creating models and testing their predictability against historic and
> ongoing data sets.
>
> Were you using "catastrophism" in the geological sense: "The doctrine that
> major changes in the earth's crust result from sudden catastrophes, such as
> the impact of a large meteor, rather than from gradual evolutionary
> processes"? If so, then I think the Earth's historical record shows that
> both catastrophism and evolution are legitimate. Hence, climate change
> could indeed be caused by a relatively "sudden" increase in the CO2 output
> into the atmosphere by humans. Perhaps I've misinterpreted your use of that
> word.
>
> Jerry
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jul 25, 2022 at 4:02 PM Ted Kochanski <tedpkphd at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Jerry,
>>
>> Lonborg is a true believer in environmentalism as opposed to Catastrophism
>>
>> Even the IPCC says that going "cold=turkey" on CO2 would have at best
>> marginal effects on the predictions for 2100
>>
>> The whole issue of why the climate varies is still a most open question
>> -- there are known naturally occuring aspects:
>>
>> long-term orbital changes [mostly periodic]
>> long-term plate tectonic changes of the layout of the continents and
>> oceans
>> long-term, large scale volcanism [e.g. Deccan Traps in India, similar
>> flows in Siberia ]
>> meteoric impacts
>> small-scale short-lived volcanic events [e.gh. Mt. Pinatubo]
>>
>>
>> Oceanic Circulation changes:
>>
>> Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO]
>> El Niño–Southern Oscillation [ENSO]
>>
>> Oceanic Atmospheric Circulation changes:
>>
>> North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]
>> Arctic oscillation [AO] aka Northern Annular Mode/Northern Hemisphere
>> Annular Mode [NAM]
>>  Antarctic oscillation aka Southern Annular Mode [SAM]
>>
>>
>> Solar Activity changes
>>
>> Solar brightness
>>
>> Solar Magnetic Field extent -- influencing penetration of galactic cosmic
>> rays into the earth's atmosphere
>>
>> Solar spectral changes
>>
>> Humans have more or less local/regional impacts mostly due to "urban heat
>> islands" and land-use pattern changes
>>
>> Finally we have the highly contentious matter of impacts directly caused
>> by human emissions of CO2, CH4, and other lesser "greenhouse gases"
>> The effects of these themselves are then "multiplied" by changes in
>> atmospheric water vapor [by far the most prevalent and impactful
>> "greenhouse gas"] -- but this is poorly understood as it is a very complex
>> 3D circulation between ocean water, vertical conveyance by tropical
>> thunderstorms and conveyance poleward by the prevailing westerlies in
>> temperate latitudes with some less well understood interaction with polar
>> ice and snow
>>
>> Even the most capable computers can not handle the complete system of
>> processes which we think we understand and apply it to a non-spherical
>> earth [we only include a generic friction parameter to account for things
>> such as small as the Appalachian Mountains] -- and then there are the
>> unknown processes which we have no way of accounting for in the models
>>
>> That's predominantly why the modelers compare themselves to each other
>> rather than the "ground truth" -- just look at the "spaghetti plots"
>> produced for tropical storms/hurricanes [some of them have predicted
>> trajectories perpendicular to some of the others]
>>
>> Ted
>>
>> PS: As someone pointed out all of the carbon buried under Pennsylvania,
>> etc., in the form of Coal, Oil, Natural Gas was once in the atmosphere --
>> plants don't get the carbon for photosynthesis from the limestone rocks
>> [another amazingly large repository of carbon once in the atmosphere]
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Jul 25, 2022 at 2:11 PM Jerry Harris <jerryharri at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Marvin,
>>> I think you've proven my point with Lomborg. It's not just the media
>>> that has called out his shifting and inaccurate claims, but real climate
>>> scientists have as well. He has long discounted the cost and severity of
>>> climate change, striving to spin a silver lining whenever possible:
>>> - his claims that rising CO2 levels will increase crop yields
>>> - his statement that since more people die in winter months, a warming
>>> planet will be good - ignoring that the data includes indirect influenza
>>> deaths and that a warming planet will increase malaria deaths
>>> - illogically claiming that the elites' "obsession" with climate change
>>> lead Germany to become solely reliant on Russian gas pipeline
>>>
>>> I think Lomborg is the human version of the young woman/old woman
>>> optical illusion. Some of what he says is sensible and reasonable, and some
>>> of what he says is selective and contradictory. With his constant shifts he
>>> can always cherry-pick those claims that turn out "right".
>>>
>>> Jerry
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sat, Jul 23, 2022 at 8:40 PM Marvin Menzin <mmenzin at icloud.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Fyi.. more on the remedies for warming..
>>>> Lomberg does not deny warming.. but he advocates a serious cost benefit
>>>> analysis on remedies before going whole hog
>>>>
>>>> He favors nuclear power, and also believes it is a mistake to   push
>>>> green power  so fast that it disrupts poorer nations  from  getting richer.
>>>>
>>>> he is one of the few  who challenges rapid disruptive  approaches that
>>>> harm the prospects for a better life for the worlds poor nations in the
>>>> name of  rapidly saving the planet..no matter what the bad side effects .
>>>>
>>>> Lomberg has written lots of articles on this theme and is considered
>>>> controversial in most media.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Sent from my iPad
>>>>
>>>> Begin forwarded message:
>>>>
>>>> *From:* Marvin Menzin <mmenzin at icloud.com>
>>>> *Date:* July 23, 2022 at 9:52:33 AM EDT
>>>> *To:* Isaac Menzin <isaacmenzin at gmail.com>, sammy hepner <
>>>> sammyhepner at gmail.com>, Joseph Menzin <joemenzin at gmail.com>, Abe
>>>> Menzin <abemenzin at hotmail.com>, jon menzin <jon.menzin at gmail.com>,
>>>> sally tyszka <smtyszka at comcast.net>, abby hepner <abbyhepner at gmail.com>,
>>>> Orly Shitrit <shitrit.orly at gmail.com>, daniel menzin <dmenzin at gmail.com>,
>>>> Larry Menzin <lmenzin at american-tech.com>, ari menzin <
>>>> arimenzin at gmail.com>, Marit Menzin <mmenzin at verizon.net>, hannah
>>>> hepner <hehepner at gmail.com>, adam menzin <menzin24 at yahoo.com>, Marion
>>>> Menzin <marionmenzin at gmail.com>, Eleanor Menzin <
>>>> eleanormenzin at hotmail.com>, Roberta Menzin <rmenzin57 at gmail.com>, tara
>>>> rosenthal <trosenthal429 at yahoo.com>, kobi shitrit <
>>>> shitrit.kobi at gmail.com>, lev menzin <levmenzin at gmail.com>, David
>>>> Hepner <dlhepner67 at gmail.com>, jordan menzin <jamenzin at gmail.com>,
>>>> talia menzin <tjmenzin at gmail.com>, Julie Menzin <
>>>> julie.a.menzin at gmail.com>, MARGARET MENZIN <menzin at comcast.net>
>>>> *Subject:* *rare common sense in mitigating global warming..*
>>>>
>>>> 
>>>> A sidewalk in London, July 20.
>>>> By
>>>>
>>>> Bjorn Lomborg
>>>> July 21, 2022 6:36 pm ET
>>>> Photo: andy rain/Shutterstock
>>>>
>>>> Such arguments are misleading. It’s true that as temperatures rise the
>>>> world will experience more heat waves, but humans also adapt to such
>>>> things. In Spain, for example
>>>> <https://enveurope.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s12302-021-00542-7>,
>>>> rising temperatures have actually led to fewer heat deaths, because people
>>>> have adapted faster than temperatures have gone up. It simply took air
>>>> conditioning, public cooling centers and better treatment of maladies that
>>>> are caused or aggravated by heat, such as heatstroke and heart disease.
>>>>
>>>> The exclusive focus on heat deaths is also misleading. Across the
>>>> world, low temperatures are much more dangerous
>>>> <https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext> than
>>>> high ones: Half a million people die each year from heat, but more than 4.5
>>>> million die from cold. While rising temperatures will increase heat deaths,
>>>> they will also decrease cold deaths. A recent Lancet study found
>>>> <https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1548650946544209920> that
>>>> rising temperatures since 2000 have on net reduced the number of
>>>> temperature-related deaths. Researchers concluded that by the end of the
>>>> 2010s, rising temperatures globally were causing 116,000 more heat deaths
>>>> annually, but also leading to 283,000 fewer cold deaths a year.
>>>>
>>>> Moreover, politicians’ singular focus on climate change ignores that
>>>> people are much more worried about rampant inflation, especially rising
>>>> food and energy prices. And climate policies are making those problems
>>>> worse.
>>>> OpinionMorning Editorial Report
>>>>
>>>> All the day's Opinion headlines.
>>>> ------------------------------
>>>>
>>>> Much of the extreme energy-price increase that normal people are
>>>> dealing with is caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. But things wouldn’t be
>>>> nearly as bad if the West hadn’t thrown up green roadblocks to its own
>>>> energy security, such as President Biden’s moratorium on gas leases or
>>>> Europe’s refusal to dig into its substantial shale gas reserves. Climate
>>>> policies also increase energy prices by subsidizing renewables like solar
>>>> and wind. That makes it even harder to adapt to the extreme temperatures
>>>> climate activists bemoan. You need cheap and reliable energy to afford air
>>>> conditioning in the summer and heating in the winter.
>>>>
>>>> Rising fuel prices are also making food more expensive. Low-cost
>>>> synthetic fertilizer is one of the greatest technologies humanity has
>>>> invented for feeding the world, but it’s mostly made with natural gas. Even
>>>> with almost a billion people at risk of starvation, climate-obsessed
>>>> bureaucrats still object
>>>> <https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-split-over-fertiliser-plants-poorer-nations-food-crisis-bites-2022-06-20/>to
>>>> producing more fertilizer because of the fossil fuels required.
>>>>
>>>> The cost of green policies will become even harder to bear if
>>>> politicians make good on their promises to hit net-zero emissions.
>>>> Achieving this globally by 2050 would cost more than $5 trillion a year for
>>>> the next three decades, according
>>>> <https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/the-economic-transformation-what-would-change-in-the-net-zero-transition> to
>>>> McKinsey. That would be one-third of total global tax revenue. If every
>>>> American were to shell out more than $5,000 a year
>>>> <https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1431599612616445958>, it
>>>> would only get the U.S. 80% of the way there by midcentury. Hitting 100%
>>>> would likely cost more than twice that. The European Union already pays €69
>>>> billion
>>>> <https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/76c57f2f-174c-11eb-b57e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en> a
>>>> year in subsidies to support its renewables. But if the EU persists with
>>>> its even stauncher promises of net-zero, that annual climate policy cost is
>>>> likely to exceed $1 trillion.
>>>>
>>>> No wonder there’s political pushback to environmental grandstanding.
>>>> The Netherlands has been roiled by protests since the government mandated
>>>> in June that nitrogen-oxide and ammonia emissions, which are produced by
>>>> livestock, must be slashed by 70% to 80% in some parts of the country. As
>>>> many as 40,000 farmers demonstrated against the measure last month. Holland
>>>> is among the world’s 10 largest food exporters, and these policies would
>>>> decimate the country’s agriculture industry while global hunger is rising.
>>>>
>>>> Sri Lanka is the epitome of elite environmentalism gone wrong. Pushed
>>>> to go organic by activists and the World Economic Forum, the government
>>>> banned synthetic fertilizers in April 2021. Food production collapsed and
>>>> the currency defaulted. Hungry and outraged citizens launched protests,
>>>> overran the presidential palace, and forced the government to resign en
>>>> masse and the president to flee the country.
>>>>
>>>> It’s entirely possible to help the climate and working families at the
>>>> same time. The policies to do so are innovation-focused. Policy makers need
>>>> to recognize that they simply can’t eliminate fossil fuels with current
>>>> technologies. The world gets almost 80% of its energy from fossil fuels,
>>>> and even if all current climate policies were fully implemented, by
>>>> midcentury fossil fuels would still provide more than half of all energy
>>>> used world-wide, according
>>>> <https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4ed140c1-c3f3-4fd9-acae-789a4e14a23c/WorldEnergyOutlook2021.pdf> to
>>>> the International Energy Agency. Instead of sending energy prices sky-high
>>>> by trying to force a transition to renewables prematurely, policy makers
>>>> should focus on funding research to develop clean energy sources that are
>>>> actually affordable and reliable. And instead of badgering farmers to go
>>>> organic, governments should invest in research to develop varieties of
>>>> crops and agricultural practices that deliver higher yields with a smaller
>>>> environmental footprint.
>>>>
>>>> Some of these technologies are already in development. Greater funding
>>>> could bring them to fruition more quickly and do a lot more to help limit
>>>> emissions than the policies activists now hawk. These sorts of sensible
>>>> measures would cost much less than policies like net-zero, leaving more
>>>> money to meet the world’s many other challenges.
>>>>
>>>> It’s starting to dawn on some elites that their policies are creating
>>>> political dangers. Frans Timmermans, the European Commission’s vice
>>>> president, has said that many millions of Europeans may not be able to heat
>>>> their homes this winter. This, he concludes, could lead to “very, very
>>>> strong conflict and strife.”
>>>>
>>>> He’s right. When people are cold, hungry and broke, they rebel. If the
>>>> elites continue pushing incredibly expensive policies that are disconnected
>>>> from the urgent challenges facing most people, we need to brace for chaos.
>>>>
>>>> *Mr. Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus and visiting
>>>> fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. His latest book is
>>>> “False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor,
>>>> and Fails to Fix the Planet.”*
>>>>
>>>> WSJ Opinion: Executive Beast Mode and the Democrats’ Apocalyptic
>>>> Politics
>>>> [image: WSJ Opinion: Executive Beast Mode and the Democrats’
>>>> Apocalyptic Politics]
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Sent from my iPad
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Sent from my iPad
>>>>
>>>> ===============================================
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