<html xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" xmlns:m="http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=us-ascii"><meta name=Generator content="Microsoft Word 15 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
span.EmailStyle17
{mso-style-type:personal-compose;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;
color:windowtext;}
.MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext="edit">
<o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72" style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>I just played the recording of Howard Winkler’s talk “Is There Intelligent Life Anywhere in the Universe” and enjoyed it very much. (I had a conflict the day of the talk.) It surprised me, however, that nobody brought up a probability factor of how long intelligent technological civilizations last. We’ve only had the technology to transmit radio waves for 120 years or so, and even a little shorter for the ability to transmit powerful signals. How long will our technologically-capable civilization last. One hopes a long time, but perhaps we will end it before long by climate change or by nuclear war.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>If such civilizations arise randomly after billions of years of evolution, and they wipe themselves out within a few hundred years, there might not be any others around now.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Sorry for this depressing thought, but I’m not the first one to mention it.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal>Carl Lazarus<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=FR><a href="mailto:carllazarus@comcast.net"><span lang=EN-US>carllazarus@comcast.net</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=FR>617-964-7241 (H)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>