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<p>No doubt there are arguments from passengers bound for all 3
buses of Jerry's cartoon (I could not the name of the artist)....</p>
<p>However, it is hard to swallow (my understatement of the day) to
believe that the end of the "hockey-stick curve" (see snip below;
<font color="blue"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph</a></font>),
starting at our Industrial Revolution, is a mere cosmic
coincidence of two unrelated events.</p>
<p>Tony</p>
<p><img src="cid:part1.LBqMsxKp.qFXFxDNx@verizon.net" alt=""
width="605" height="495"></p>
<p>=============<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 7/25/22 7:17 PM, Ted Kochanski
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAPj-+DEE9N0pwcsHyTNuiZB+UaPaF-8H__VwJgArGxuGcsDKbw@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">Michael, et al
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I'm not sure what “mainstream expert opinion” -- actually
means</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>There is enormous gap between the highly political "Summary
for Policymakers" and the technical content of the IPCC
reports</div>
<div>There is a fairly rigorous peer review process for the
technical chapters with people of a skeptical bent such as
Richard Lindzen playing key roles as principal authors [e.g.
in 2001]</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>The true sciencientists are careful to specify the large
uncertainties associated with many of the parameters --
sometime with multidimensional error bars -- such as the
effects of clouds on radiation back into space at night ["the
blanket on top of the greenhouse roof effect"] </div>
<div>These parameters in turn govern the atmospheric models --
the truth is that no one has yet figured out how to
characterize the "feedback phase" [+/- multiplier due to the
various clouds at various altitudes] and many similar
processes -- so they are just approximated by other parameters
or just ignored [e.g. the well known crudeness of the general
circulation models down at the level of mountain ranges where
with a few exceptions only a generalized friction term is used
in place of any detailed 3D processes which we know are
important in weather such as the Alpine föhn, Chinooks, etc.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>In the end -- all of the IPCC " projections "quoted by the
Media and political types" are made by economic models of
energy consumption and fossil fuel burning -- they really have
no fundamental basis in underlying atmospheric science once
the one parameter [sensitivity to doubling the CO2 is
selected]<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>The stuff that the media talks about -- is crafted by the
politics within and without the UN Committee involved in the
process -- many of the people negotiating the Summary are
politicians, economists or functionaries contributed by the
various countries -- many have no actual history of making
contributions to the underlying science</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I agree that we need to well understand the matter before
us -- however precipitous ["pun"?] action is the absence of
understanding is likely to be wasteful at the minimum and even
potentially exacerbating.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Finally -- its all well and good for the Davos crowd to
preen and congratulate themselves -- they have achieved a much
higher standard of living than their ancestors of just about a
couple of generations ago [due to fossil fuels and
electricity] -- what about the B's of people still living on a
subsistence agricultural level -- don't they deserve some
chance to flourish?<br>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Ted</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Mon, Jul 25, 2022 at 5:38
PM Michael Alexander <<a href="mailto:mna.ma@yahoo.com"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">mna.ma@yahoo.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
Jerry et al.: I subscribe to the idea that climate change
is substantially human-caused, and that the impact on Earth
and humans is already severe and getting worse. It seems to
me that critiques like those Ted Kochanski advances are,
though perceptive and (I think) valid, of second-order
importance for policymakers because the scope and intensity
of climate-change-induced phenomena have become so huge.
<div><br>
</div>
<div>To the best of my understanding, “mainstream expert
opinion” believes standard climate models (including the
data fed into them) have underestimated the extent of
global and regional changes (temperature changes, CO2 and
CH4 (methane) concentrations), plus massive droughts, mass
fires, etc. <span
id="gmail-m_8582507992065414401yahoo-rte-cursor-span"></span>Therefore,
strong countervailing actions have become imperative, even
as climate models and input data are improved.<br>
<br>
To say this is one thing. To achieve genuine,
significant changes— worldwide changes, not changes
merely in North America – is quite different and far more
complicated. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div> – Mike Alexander</div>
<div><br>
<br>
<br>
<p
style="font-size:15px;color:rgb(113,95,250);padding-top:15px;margin-top:0px">On
Monday, July 25, 2022, 5:06 PM, Ted Kochanski <<a
href="mailto:tedpkphd@gmail.com" target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">tedpkphd@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<div id="gmail-m_8582507992065414401yiv8445333589">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">Jerry,
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Its not as simple as: </div>
<div>branch -- the climate is constant </div>
<div>or branch humans are changing the climate</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>The climate is always changing, which is why
the weather folks use a 30 year sliding average
to define [the average high, average low or the
average] for a given location and a given
calendar date.</div>
<div>The dynamics of weather forcast on a
short-time scale [say up to 10 days] and
forecasts for the upcoming season are not
cleanly delineated</div>
<div>and then you get meta-events such as a
drought lasting a few months to a few years --
is that a climate or just weather event</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>However, when you see prolonged instances of
something such as the Extended Freezing weather
in the 1300's through as late as the early
1800's in Europe, North America and beyond --
aka the Little Ice Age [LIA] -- that is clearly
climate on a nearly global scale. Similarly the
LIA is predated by the Medieval Optimum [MO]
when much of coastal Greenland was ice-free.
However, we have minimal instrumental data on
the LIA [mostly the latter few decades] and none
at all about the MO -- depending entirely on
proxies of various fidelities and a scattering
of documents relating to environmental
conditions.</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Proxies from further back suggest that there
were multiple LIA and MO like periods in the
Holocene Epoch in the past approximately 11,650
cal years since the Last Glacial Period. There
was also one extraordinary event known as the
Younger Dryas aka Younger Dryas stadial [cool
period between roughly 12,900 and 11,600 years
ago that disrupted the prevailing warming trend
occurring in the Northern Hemisphere at the end
of the Last Glacial Period. Ice and other cores
indicate that the onset of the cooling of the
Younger Dryas was preceded by the
Bølling-Allerød interstadial rapid warming
[beginning approximately 14,700 years ago]. The
Younger Dryas' return to near Glacial conditions
lasted about 1300 hundred years and was followed
by extremely rapid warming to near current
conditions [Greenland ice-core samples suggest
that local temperatures increased by up to 10 °C
in just a few decades].</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>if you want to try to put your finger on the
human component of climate change -- you need to
look to the past few decades when we have some
fairly "good" data sets of direct measurements
of temperatures [from satellites with their
issues] and CO2 concentration and figure how to
exclude the non-human induced variability of the
fairly recent [past 120 to 50 years ago]. This
post LIA era -- features substantial
variability before the recent "Satellite
Measurement Era" [SME] -- sufficient for both
"Global Warming" [early 20th C] and "Global
Cooling" with possible return to Glaciation [mid
20th C] to be popularized in major Magazine
cover stories. If human activity didn't play a
role in creating the MO or the LIA and is
difficult to credibly associate with the ending
of the LIA -- why do we feel so certain {"the
science is settled"} that we can use human
activity to explain everything which has
happened in the modern Satellite era.</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Ted</div>
<div> </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
</div>
<br clear="none">
<div
id="gmail-m_8582507992065414401yiv8445333589yqt69255">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">On Mon, Jul 25, 2022 at 4:13 PM
Jerry Harris <<a rel="nofollow noopener
noreferrer" shape="rect"
href="mailto:jerryharri@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jerryharri@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">> "Anyone who denies that
there are legitimate scientific questions...
is either un-read or not a true believer in
what the process of science is all about who
is just interested in <b>psychological
terror</b> of the populace." (emphasis
added)<br clear="none">
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>This seems to be a variant of Godwin's
Law. (Although, am I pulling a Meta-Godwin
by referencing Godwin? :-)</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Are we having a disagreement on whether
climate change is human-caused or on the
severity of the impact on Earth and
humans? I thought we were past this stage
of the discussion.</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><img
src="cid:part2.pyVamLw9.qq0hITEY@verizon.net"
alt="image.png" class="" width="472"
height="315"><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Jerry</div>
</div>
<br clear="none">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">On Mon, Jul 25, 2022 at 2:33
PM Ted Kochanski <<a rel="nofollow
noopener noreferrer" shape="rect"
href="mailto:tedpkphd@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">tedpkphd@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">Marvin,
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>In addition to Lonborg who believes
strongly in the human role in causing
climate change on a global scale there
are many imminent atmospheric
scientists who question the dependence
of the "Catastrophic wing of the
Anthropogenic Climate Change argument]
on models which are constantly
tweaked [without actually modifying
the underlying theoretical framework
for the models nor actually testing
them against the best of our
measurements of things like vertical
profiles] -- meanwhile the planet
does its own thing with our and all of
the other inputs.</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Anyone who denies that there are
legitimate scientific questions
leading to model parameters which are
inadequately quantified [even in some
cases to the sign of the term] to
result in model output which is
consistent with the best measurements
-- is either un-read or not a true
believer in what the process of
science is all about who is just
interested in psychological terror of
the populace.</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>I suggest reading Fred Singer --
just before his death he and several
others updated his original 1997 book
for the layman and others</div>
<div>Hot Talk, Cold Science (2021)<br
clear="none">
Global Warming’s Unfinished Debate
(Revised and Expanded Third Edition)<br
clear="none">
<br clear="none">
S. Fred Singer (Author)<br
clear="none">
David R. Legates (Author)<br
clear="none">
Anthony R. Lupo (Author)<br
clear="none">
Frederick Seitz (Foreword)<br
clear="none">
William Happer (Foreword)<br
clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Ted</div>
</div>
<br clear="none">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">On Mon, Jul 25, 2022 at
10:56 AM Marvin Menzin <<a
rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:mmenzin@icloud.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">mmenzin@icloud.com</a>>
wrote:<br clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div>Even in our discussion about
actions we should take on climate
change, it's notable that many
rational voices support action
"but not if it hurts economic
growth". If the consequences of
climate change are so severe, why
should we not act regardless? Does
the complexity of predicting the
outcome of the status quo vs
taking action lend bias towards
non-change? Probably. We're
evolutionarily not equipped to
deal with long-term threats. </div>
<br clear="none">
Re the above , there are many
rational people willing to accept
some hardship to mitigate warming
and the long term threat.. so it
comes down to degree, what degree of
pain is justified given the threat
and the uncertainty of the
timeline?
<div>i suggest reading Lomberg on
the subject. .he is one of that
tries to quantify the cost benefit
ratios of our actions on climate. </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div> <br clear="none">
<div dir="ltr">Sent from my iPad</div>
<div dir="ltr"><br clear="none">
<blockquote type="cite">On Jul
25, 2022, at 10:50 AM, Jerry
Harris <<a rel="nofollow
noopener noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:jerryharri@gmail.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jerryharri@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br clear="none">
<br clear="none">
</blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">Ted,
<div>Thanks for the
explanations about the
complexities with taking
temperature measurements
and your comments about
the human aspect of
scientific endeavors. </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>We are legitimizing
(to a larger degree than
I'd like to admit) the
realm of conspiracy
theories and deliberate
disinformation campaigns
by tacitly acknowledging
the notion that labeling
information a conspiracy
or disinformation is a
matter of choice.
Pointing out a
person's profit motive
or ideological agenda
for spreading the
information isn't a
strong argument since we
all apply our belief
systems when selecting
data on the ladder of
inference. On major
topics where experts
disagree, it especially
opens the door for
non-experts to confuse
the debate and dilute
our collective resolve
to take important
action. </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Even in our
discussion about actions
we should take on
climate change, it's
notable that many
rational voices support
action "but not if it
hurts economic growth".
If the consequences of
climate change are so
severe, why should we
not act regardless? Does
the complexity of
predicting the outcome
of the status quo vs
taking action lend bias
towards non-change?
Probably. We're
evolutionarily not
equipped to deal with
long-term threats. </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Jerry </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
</div>
<br clear="none">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">On Fri, Jul
22, 2022 at 11:39 AM Ted
Kochanski <<a
rel="nofollow noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:tedpkphd@gmail.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">tedpkphd@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br
clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote
style="margin:0px 0px
0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">Jerry and
all
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>I think one has
to be very careful
in characterizing
and manipulating
data which may not
be well understood
[as to error
sources, various
pre-processing,
etc.]</div>
<div>Spencer*1 and
Christy*2 are very
careful scientists
and in particular
know the satellite
microwave
radiometer data
better than nearly
anybody --
having worked with
it for more than 30
years </div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>
<div>The Satellite
data record has
been scrutinized,
challenged and
augmented over the
years until
the error
bars[mostly now
duie to the
difficulty in
calibrating from
one satellite to a
successor and the
effects of
orbital decay on
the field of view]
are miniscule
[+/- 0.02 C] in
comparison to the
very poorly
characterized and
grossly manipulated global surface temperature record. For example the
"Official Boston
Temperature" has
been collected
from sites at
different
elevations
above sea level,
different
distances from the
edge of the harbor
and even on
different sides of
the harbor. Even
for the nearly one
hundred years that
the temperature
has been measured
in East Boston--
there have been
several
measurement sites
since the days of
the East Boston
Army Airfield
[gravel strip]*3
-- and then the
configuration of
the harbor's edge
and nature of the
surrounding
surfaces near to
the measurement
site has changed
drastically even
when the
measurements were
taken at the old
control tower.
Even since the
measurement site
returned to the
edge of the harbor
with the filling
of Bird Island
Flats and the
construction of
the Hyatt and
Logan Office
Center there have
been further
changes in the
surroundings with
the construction
of the adjacent
paved area for the
one-way runway
on one side and
the consolidated
garage for rental
cars on the other
side.</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>As a personal
observation I have
had some
extensive exposure
to the NOAA ocean
buoy data sets
when I was working
on an unrelated
problem at Lincoln
Lab. I was
bothered by a
persistent "fat
tail" on the
distribution of
the buoys' air
temperature
records despite a
"careful design"
of the sun shields
for the
thermometers. On
closer inspection
the
anomalous tails
occurred only
immediately before
sunset and
immediately after
sunrise. The best
explanation -- low
angle scattering
of sunlight from
the ocean under
calm sea surface
conditions.</div>
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>Overall its easy
to assume the best
for the data
collection and
processing -- no-one
screws-up the data
intentionally -- --
butrealloy understanding the constraints and quirks of the data is often
complicated when all
the idiosyncrasies
get considered.</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>*1</div>
<div>Spencer's
background</div>
<blockquote
style="margin:0px
0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Roy
W. Spencer received
his Ph.D. in
meteorology at the
University of
Wisconsin-Madison in
1981. Before
becoming a Principal
Research Scientist
at the University of
Alabama in
Huntsville in 2001,
he was a Senior
Scientist for
Climate Studies at
NASA’s Marshall
Space Flight Center,
where he and Dr.
John Christy
received NASA’s
Exceptional
Scientific
Achievement Medal
for their global
temperature
monitoring work with
satellites. Dr.
Spencer’s work with
NASA continues as
the U.S. Science
Team leader for the
Advanced Microwave
Scanning Radiometer
flying on NASA’s
Aqua satellite. He
has provided
congressional
testimony several
times on the subject
of global warming.</blockquote>
<div>
<blockquote
style="margin:0px
0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"> Dr.
Spencer’s research
has been entirely
supported by U.S.
government
agencies: NASA,
NOAA, and DOE. He
has never been
asked by any oil
company to perform
any kind of
service. Not even
Exxon-Mobil.</blockquote>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div> *2</div>
</div>
<div>Christy's
background</div>
<blockquote
style="margin:0px
0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Dr.
John R. Christy is
the Distinguished
Professor of
Atmospheric Science
and Director of the
Earth System Science
Center at The
University of
Alabama in
Huntsville where he
began studying
global climate
issues in 1987.
Since November 2000
he has been
Alabama's State
Climatologist. In
1989 Dr. Roy W.
Spencer (then a
NASA/Marshall
scientist and now a
Principal Research
Scientist at UAH)
and Christy
developed a global
temperature data set
from microwave data
observed from
satellites beginning
in 1979. For this
achievement, the
Spencer-Christy team
was awarded NASA's
Medal for
Exceptional
Scientific
Achievement in 1991.
<b>In 1996, they
were selected to
receive a Special
Award by the
American
Meteorological
Society "for
developing a
global, precise
record of earth's
temperature from
operational
polar-orbiting
satellites,
fundamentally
advancing our
ability to monitor
climate."</b> In
January 2002 Christy
was inducted as a
Fellow of the
American
Meteorological
Society.<br
clear="none">
Education<br
clear="none">
Ph.D., Atmospheric
Science, University
of Illinois, 1987<br
clear="none">
M.S., Atmospheric
Science, University
of Illinois, 1984<br
clear="none">
Graduate Research
Assistant University
of Illinois (summer
1985 at NCAR)</blockquote>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div>*3 </div>
<div>Wikipedia article </div>
<div>
<blockquote
style="margin:0px
0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Jeffries
Point in East
Boston was
selected as the
site, due to its
principal
advantage of the
capability for
enlargement
through the
filling in of the
adjoining flats,
owned by the
state. The
aircraft landing
field at Jeffires
Point in East
Boston was to
accommodate
military, naval
and air mail
airplanes and
commercial and
civilian flyers.<br
clear="none">
Built in 1923,
East Boston's new
airport had two
1,500 foot cinder
covered runways
laid out in the
shape of a "T"
with turning
circles at each
end. </blockquote>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Ted </div>
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
<div><br clear="none">
</div>
</div>
<br clear="none">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">On Thu,
Jul 21, 2022 at 2:46
PM Jerry Harris <<a
rel="nofollow
noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:jerryharri@gmail.com"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jerryharri@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br
clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote
style="margin:0px
0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">Hi
Stephen,
<div>>
Meanwhile,
notice that the
opposite does
NOT happen. In
other words,
nowhere in the
“alternative” or
“pseudoscience”
world are the
real academic
debates on these
supposedly
“alternative
facts” actually
referenced.
It’s a one-sided
argument where
science engages
it’s critics but
it’s critics
then ignore
those legitimate
responses to
their attacks. </div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>This is
usually a sign
the debater is
approaching the
topic with a
pre-conceived
conclusion and
will discard
contradictory
facts, treating
the data as a
means to an
end. </div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>As for this
particular
dataset on Dr
Roy's website, I
downloaded his
data file (it
was not
csv-formatted)
and created a
chart. The
charts don't
match at all.
It's also clear
it's an
incomplete
dataset. The
numbers are
"temperature
anomalies",
which are deltas
from an average
calculated
across a range
of the original
temperature data
(eg, years
1981-2001).
The average of
the anomaly data
across the same
range should
equal zero.
There was no
such range in
his data file,
so he's missing
data. </div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>I don't know
whether the data
is legit or not,
but someone
who's this
sloppy with
their charts and
data is working
from a trust
deficit. </div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Jerry</div>
</div>
<br clear="none">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">On
Thu, Jul 21,
2022 at 1:34 PM
Stephen Quatrano
<<a
rel="nofollow
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shape="rect"
href="mailto:stefanoq@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">stefanoq@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br
clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote
style="margin:0px
0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>Jerry,
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>I get
what you are
saying.
Theories that
explain the
evidence are
absolutely a
matter of
debate in the
scientific
community.
And it’s
certainly true
about what
should be DONE
about climate
change, which
is not a
scientific
question at
all. But with
respect to the
evidence
itself,
especially in
a case like
this, I think
there is still
a LOT we can
say in order
to push back
on a
post-modern
kind of view
where everyone
is entitled to
their own
facts as well
as their own
opinions.
Furthermore,
in this case,
I think
there’s
evidence that
this data set
in particular
is being used
in bad faith —
abused in
other words —
to undermine
public
confidence in
science.</div>
<div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>This
satellite data
is not a set
of
“alternative
facts” that
are ignored by
the scientific
community. It
doesn’t even
contradict
warming that
has been
observed
unless you
cherry pick
the data.
(Why are we
looking at the
last 18
years?) On
the contrary,
the overall
dataset
confirms the
fact that the
planet is
warming, first
of all. And
second, this
data set is
PART of the
empirical data
we use to
understand
what is
happening to
our planet.
And finally,
on its own, it
does not
falsify an
overwhelming,
global
consensus on
the fact of
climate change
and
attribution
models that
can ONLY
account for
observed
changes when
we consider
the effects of
human
activity.</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>All you
need to do to
verify these
three claims
is search the
scientific
record for the
dataset.
Voila! You
find it!!
Someone more
skilled than I
am with
familiarity
and access to
original
scientific
research can
do it even
better than I
have, no
doubt. I’d
love to see
and learn more
about this
dataset!</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>This is
pretty far
from my own
expertise but
I have
invested quite
a bit of time
into both the
history and
philosophy of
science in
order to
understand
“how we know
what we
know”. I’ve
learned to
take a deep
breath and ask
some important
questions
before
engaging in
unproductive
debate on
science and
pseudoscience.
</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>For
example, my
first question
is: “What
exactly is
this data
set?” I try
hard to
actually be
interested in
the data and
interested in
learning. Why
not? It’s
cool.</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>And my
second
question is:
“If it is
legit, and if
it does
contradict
other data, is
it actually
being ignored
by scientists
(which is what
is being
implied by the
controversy)?
Is it being
hidden or
covered up?
Or perhaps
it’s actually
being used in
their
models?” </div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Does
anyone else
notice that
these
questions are
not asked by
those who are
sowing doubt?
And they
surely don’t
make explicit
claims that
scientists
have ignored
or tried to
cover up the
contradictory
data. Why
not? Because
they can be
investigated
pretty
easily. And
if you look,
you’ll find
out that ALL
of the
legitimate
data is being
used by the
community, not
just those
“convenient”
datapoints
that support
some kind of
bogus theory.<br
clear="none">
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>I used
Google for
literally 5
minutes and
found these
pretty
interesting
looking
arguments that
engage with
the data, the
actual data,
NOT
ALTERNATIVE
FACTS, and
explain that
it IS being
used and HOW
it’s being
used and WHY.</div>
<div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div><a
rel="nofollow
noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="https://skepticalscience.com/Response-Data-or-Dogma-hearing.html"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://skepticalscience.com/Response-Data-or-Dogma-hearing.html</a></div>
</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div><a
rel="nofollow
noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=466"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=466</a></div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>“What-about-ism”
is a plague on
our open
society and
rational
public
discourse.
It’s a problem
that all you
need to do to
cast doubt on
hard won
consensus
after years of
debate and
vital
institutions,
is to throw
data that
seems to
contradict
conventional
wisdom and ask
questions like
these: “What
about the
'Latest Global
Average
Tropospheric
Temperatures’
data set from
satellites?”</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Even I
experience a
kind of
knee-jerk,
visceral
response to
this
question. I
feel myself
asking,
“Yeah! What
ABOUT that
contradictory
data?” Dang!</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>You see,
it’s just too
easy to cast
doubt and
undermine
confidence
like this.
And it’s
really,
freakin hard
to build
trust.</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Stepping
back, I notice
that the
record of
scientific
literature
DOES consider
these
measurements,
dare I call
them “facts."
There are no
alternative
facts. The
prevailing
models MUST
account for
all
observations,
including
these. And
sure enough,
these very
datasets are
clearly
referenced in
the
literature.</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Meanwhile,
notice that
the opposite
does NOT
happen. In
other words,
nowhere in the
“alternative”
or
“pseudoscience”
world are the
real academic
debates on
these
supposedly
“alternative
facts”
actually
referenced.
It’s a
one-sided
argument where
science
engages it’s
critics but
it’s critics
then ignore
those
legitimate
responses to
their
attacks. They
repeat
themselves.
Or they move
on. They
don’t actually
debate the
issue: they
just cast
doubt on the
entire
endeavor.</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>I call
this “bad
faith” or
pseudo-discourse.
It’s not, in
fact, a
conversation
at all.</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Unfortunately,
this creates a
lot of
collateral
damage as
well. It
affects our
confidence and
public trust
in EVERYTHING.</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>SQ</div>
<div>
<div><br
clear="none">
<blockquote
type="cite">
<div>On Jul
21, 2022, at
12:15 PM,
Jerry Harris
<<a
rel="nofollow
noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:jerryharri@gmail.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jerryharri@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:</div>
<br
clear="none">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">Peter,
<div>I
disagree. The
climate change
debate shows
us that
alternative
facts have
been created
and used to
support
pre-determined
conclusions.
The latest
example
recently
shared on this
list was that
global warming
is on "pause"
and CO2
increase is
not the cause
of climate
change. (<a
rel="nofollow
noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/</a>)</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Even in
situations
where the
facts are
agreed upon by
all parties,
there can be
plenty of
alternative
conclusions.
Sometimes
these are
positive and
progressive,
eg, the
scientific
method where a
new theory is
proposed based
on existing
data.
Sometimes
there is
incorrect or
flawed
reasoning
(e.g.,
stupidity)
that is used
to reach a
different
conclusion.
And sometimes,
there are
belief- or
ideologically-driven
conclusions
where the data
and reasoning
chain only
serves as
means to an
end. </div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>This gets
me back to
conspiracy
theorists.
Dismissing
them as either
"stupid" or
"fact-deprived"
ignores the
harm they can
cause through
disinformation
amplification
and
brainwashing. </div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>I know
this is
typical
over-thinking
of a simple
cartoon, but
this is why I
feel the
cartoon is
timelessly
funny, IMO. </div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div>Jerry</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
</div>
<br
clear="none">
<div>
<div dir="ltr">On
Thu, Jul 21,
2022 at 11:21
AM <<a
rel="nofollow
noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:palbin24@yahoo.com"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">palbin24@yahoo.com</a>>
wrote:<br
clear="none">
</div>
<blockquote
style="margin:0px
0px 0px
0.8ex;border-left:1px
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>Fortunately
in science
“alternate
facts” do not
exist.<br
clear="none">
<br
clear="none">
<div dir="ltr">Peter</div>
<div dir="ltr"><br
clear="none">
<blockquote
type="cite">On
Jul 21, 2022,
at 11:11 AM, <a
rel="nofollow
noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:carllazarus@comcast.net"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">carllazarus@comcast.net</a>
wrote:<br
clear="none">
<br
clear="none">
</blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote
type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<p>Facts don’t
matter to
conspiracy
theorists.</p>
<p> </p>
<div
style="border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:none;border-top:1pt
solid
rgb(225,225,225);padding:3pt
0in 0in">
<p><b>From:</b>
LCTG
<lctg-bounces+carllazarus=<a
rel="nofollow
noopener
noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:comcast.net@lists.toku.us"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">comcast.net@lists.toku.us</a>>
<b>On Behalf
Of </b>Jerry
Harris<br
clear="none">
<b>Sent:</b>
Thursday, July
21, 2022 8:30
AM<br
clear="none">
<b>To:</b>
john rudy <<a
rel="nofollow
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noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:jjrudy1@comcast.net"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jjrudy1@comcast.net</a>><br
clear="none">
<b>Cc:</b> Lex
Computer Group
<<a
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noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:LCTG@lists.toku.us"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">LCTG@lists.toku.us</a>><br
clear="none">
<b>Subject:</b>
Re: [Lex
Computer &
Tech
Group/LCTG]
science</p>
</div>
<p> </p>
<div>
<p>If only
conspiracy
theories or
disinformation
campaigns
could be so
easily refuted
with facts. </p>
</div>
<p> </p>
<div>
<div>
<p>On Wed, Jul
20, 2022 at
10:58 AM john
rudy <<a
rel="nofollow
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noreferrer"
shape="rect"
href="mailto:jjrudy1@comcast.net"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">jjrudy1@comcast.net</a>>
wrote:</p>
</div>
<blockquote
style="border-top:none;border-right:none;border-bottom:none;border-left:1pt
solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding:0in
0in 0in
6pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
<div>
<div>
<div><br
clear="none">
</div>
<div><image001.png></div>
<div><br
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</div>
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">===============================================
::The Lexington Computer and Technology Group Mailing List::
Reply goes to sender only; Reply All to send to list.
Send to the list: <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:LCTG@lists.toku.us">LCTG@lists.toku.us</a> Message archives: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://lists.toku.us/private.cgi/lctg-toku.us">http://lists.toku.us/private.cgi/lctg-toku.us</a>
To subscribe: email <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:lctg-subscribe@toku.us">lctg-subscribe@toku.us</a> To unsubscribe: email <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:lctg-unsubscribe@toku.us">lctg-unsubscribe@toku.us</a>
Future and Past meeting information: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://LCTG.toku.us">http://LCTG.toku.us</a>
List information: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://lists.toku.us/listinfo.cgi/lctg-toku.us">http://lists.toku.us/listinfo.cgi/lctg-toku.us</a>
This message was sent to <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:galaitsis@verizon.net">galaitsis@verizon.net</a>.
Set your list options: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://lists.toku.us/options.cgi/lctg-toku.us/galaitsis@verizon.net">http://lists.toku.us/options.cgi/lctg-toku.us/galaitsis@verizon.net</a></pre>
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