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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple style='word-wrap:break-word'><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",serif'>Next Aurora Forecast<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",serif'>Cheers,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",serif'>Smita Desai<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Aptos",serif'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'> SWPC Product Subscription Service <SWPC.Products@noaa.gov> <br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, May 12, 2024 8:31 AM<br><b>Subject:</b> NOAA 3-Day Forecast<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><pre>Product: 3-Day Forecast<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Issued: 2024 May 12 1230 UTC<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>Center<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>G5).<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2024 is 7.67 (NOAA Scale<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>G4).<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2024<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre> May 12 May 13 May 14<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>00-03UT 6.67 (G3) 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1)<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>03-06UT 7.00 (G3) 6.67 (G3) 4.33 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>06-09UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 3.00 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>09-12UT 3.67 5.67 (G2) 3.00 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>12-15UT 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 2.67 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>15-18UT 6.00 (G2) 3.67 2.00 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>18-21UT 7.67 (G4) 3.00 2.00 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre>21-00UT 6.67 (G3) 3.00 3.00 <o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Rationale: G4 (Extreme) storm levels are expected on 12 May due to CME<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>impacts. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely to continue into the<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>early hours of 13 May. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>likely on 14 May as conditions from the the previous days wane.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>above S-scale storm level thresholds.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre> May 12 May 13 May 14<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>S1 or greater 99% 60% 60%<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected through 14 May<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>due to activity originating from AR 3634.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>hours. The largest was at May 11 2024 1525 UTC.<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre> May 12 May 13 May 14<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>R1-R2 95% 95% 95%<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>R3 or greater 75% 75% 75%<o:p></o:p></pre><pre><o:p> </o:p></pre><pre>Rationale: R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts are expected all<o:p></o:p></pre><pre>three days.<o:p></o:p></pre><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><hr size=2 width="100%" align=center></div><p class=MsoNormal>Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to the <a href="https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov">Product Subscription Site.</a> Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact <a href="mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov">SWPC Help.</a><o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>