[Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models

Mon Feb 7 12:08:55 PST 2022

There are two separate issues

1.	Kerry IS an excellent speaker.  I have had him twice at BOLLI, once at our group, and he talked at the temple.  All talks were about global warming.  I would be happy to listen to him again
2.	The question from George that kicked off this current discussion was about weather models.  For 5 years I have attempted to get a speaker on this and finally got a weather forecaster to talk at BOLLI.  I was out of the country when he spoke but was told that the talk was poor and didn’t address the issue.

I have been trying to get a speaker who can discuss

*	Why we always hear of various models that have different results.  What makes them different
*	With computers 1000 times more powerful than 30 years ago how much better are the forecasts
*	Is the improvement primarily for really bad things, like hurricanes, where the cost of a mistake is large

Dick Wagner says that there was a 2021 Nobel Price in this area.  I have not looked into it

With all of our members I would hope to have some contacts and Harry, I would love to have you pursue Kerry.  I suspect he remembers me.

John

John Rudy

781-861-0402

781-718-8334 (cell)

 <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu 

13 Hawthorne Lane

Bedford, MA  01730-1047

From: LCTG <lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us> On Behalf Of Harry Forsdick
Sent: Monday, February 7, 2022 3:00 PM
To: Steve Isenberg <smisenberg at gmail.com>
Cc: Lexington Computer Group New Address Distribution <LCTG at lists.toku.us>
Subject: Re: [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models

I think Kerry Emanuel would be an excellent speaker.  Check out this video to understand his style of delivering accessible talks:

https://www.nuclearmatters.com/as_a_matter_of_fact_dr_kerry_emanuel_interview

Regards,

— Harry

On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 2:43 PM Steve Isenberg <smisenberg at gmail.com <mailto:smisenberg at gmail.com> > wrote:

If we do have a recording of him, it would be listed on the group wiki page at https://LCTG.toku.us, or you can visit our YouTube channel, see the link also on the group wiki page. 

-steve 

On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 2:32 PM Stephen Quatrano <stefanoq at gmail.com <mailto:stefanoq at gmail.com> > wrote:

Do we have a recording of Kerry?

SQ

On Feb 7, 2022, at 11:38 AM, john rudy <jjrudy1 at comcast.net <mailto:jjrudy1 at comcast.net> > wrote:

Kerry talks about Global Warming and associated subjects.  What I was looking for is a discussion of the various weather models used to forecast the weather for the next two weeks.  We have had him talk to us and he is excellent

The groundhog, I just learned, is accurate 40% of the time in the last 100 years

Farmer’s Almanac is …….

John Rudy

781-861-0402

781-718-8334 (cell)

 <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu

13 Hawthorne Lane <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g> 

Bedford, MA <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>  <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+%C2%A0++01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>   01730-1047 <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g> 

<image001.png>

From: Stephen Quatrano <stefanoq at gmail.com <mailto:stefanoq at gmail.com> > 
Sent: Monday, February 7, 2022 9:41 AM
To: john rudy <jjrudy1 at comcast.net <mailto:jjrudy1 at comcast.net> >
Cc: George Gamota <ggamota at stma-llc.com <mailto:ggamota at stma-llc.com> >; Lexington Computer Group New Address Distribution <LCTG at lists.toku.us <mailto:LCTG at lists.toku.us> >
Subject: Re: [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models

Kerry Emanuel is a Lexington resident, brilliant, and very well connected.  He speaks about climate modeling all the time and has spoken at Cary Library.  I don’t know him personally nor am I certain he’s speak to a group such as ours but it may be worth trying.  He’s really very, very interesting and accomplished.

https://emanuel.mit.edu/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Emanuel

SQ

On Feb 7, 2022, at 9:36 AM, john rudy <jjrudy1 at comcast.net <mailto:jjrudy1 at comcast.net> > wrote:

I have been advocating this for some time but have been unable to locate a speaker

John

John Rudy

781-861-0402

781-718-8334 (cell)

 <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu

13 Hawthorne Lane <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g> 

Bedford, MA <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>  <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+%C2%A0++01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>   01730-1047 <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g> 

<image001.png>

From: LCTG <lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us <mailto:lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us> > On Behalf Of George Gamota
Sent: Sunday, February 6, 2022 11:58 PM
To: 'Lexington Computer Group New Address Distribution' <LCTG at lists.toku.us <mailto:LCTG at lists.toku.us> >
Subject: [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models

It would be good if we could find someone to speak about Climate Models

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/02/crisis-for-the-climate-models.php

George

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