[Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models

[JOHN M BROWN]

For clarification, there is a difference between computer modeling for changes in climate (with forecasts looking out in decades) and changes in weather (usually looking out days). 

My impression was that George started off this thread asking for a session on climate modeling but the topic has morphed to the weather forecasting.

It may require 2 speakers and 2 sessions to cover the 2 topics.

   John B. 

PS - The fact that it is very difficult to reliably predict weather a couple of months from now does not mean that forecasts of climate several decades from now are useless.  




> On Feb 7, 2022, at 3:08 PM, john rudy <jjrudy1 at comcast.net> wrote:
> 
> There are two separate issues
>  
> Kerry IS an excellent speaker.  I have had him twice at BOLLI, once at our group, and he talked at the temple.  All talks were about global warming.  I would be happy to listen to him again
> The question from George that kicked off this current discussion was about weather models.  For 5 years I have attempted to get a speaker on this and finally got a weather forecaster to talk at BOLLI.  I was out of the country when he spoke but was told that the talk was poor and didn’t address the issue.
>  
> I have been trying to get a speaker who can discuss
> Why we always hear of various models that have different results.  What makes them different
> With computers 1000 times more powerful than 30 years ago how much better are the forecasts
> Is the improvement primarily for really bad things, like hurricanes, where the cost of a mistake is large
>  
> Dick Wagner says that there was a 2021 Nobel Price in this area.  I have not looked into it
>  
> With all of our members I would hope to have some contacts and Harry, I would love to have you pursue Kerry.  I suspect he remembers me.
>  
> John
>  
> John Rudy
> 781-861-0402
> 781-718-8334 (cell)
> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu>
>  
> 13 Hawthorne Lane
> Bedford, MA  01730-1047
> <image001.png>
>  



> From: LCTG <lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us <mailto:lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us>> On Behalf Of Harry Forsdick
> Sent: Monday, February 7, 2022 3:00 PM
> To: Steve Isenberg <smisenberg at gmail.com <mailto:smisenberg at gmail.com>>
> Cc: Lexington Computer Group New Address Distribution <LCTG at lists.toku.us <mailto:LCTG at lists.toku.us>>
> Subject: Re: [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models
>  
> I think Kerry Emanuel would be an excellent speaker.  Check out this video to understand his style of delivering accessible talks:
>  
> https://www.nuclearmatters.com/as_a_matter_of_fact_dr_kerry_emanuel_interview <https://www.nuclearmatters.com/as_a_matter_of_fact_dr_kerry_emanuel_interview>
>  
> Regards,
>  
> — Harry
>  



> On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 2:43 PM Steve Isenberg <smisenberg at gmail.com <mailto:smisenberg at gmail.com>> wrote:
>> If we do have a recording of him, it would be listed on the group wiki page at https://LCTG.toku.us <https://lctg.toku.us/>, or you can visit our YouTube channel, see the link also on the group wiki page. 
>> -steve 
>>  
>> On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 2:32 PM Stephen Quatrano <stefanoq at gmail.com <mailto:stefanoq at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>> Do we have a recording of Kerry?
>>>  
>>> SQ
>>> 
>>> 


>>>> On Feb 7, 2022, at 11:38 AM, john rudy <jjrudy1 at comcast.net <mailto:jjrudy1 at comcast.net>> wrote:
>>>>  
>>>> Kerry talks about Global Warming and associated subjects.  What I was looking for is a discussion of the various weather models used to forecast the weather for the next two weeks.  We have had him talk to us and he is excellent
>>>>  
>>>> The groundhog, I just learned, is accurate 40% of the time in the last 100 years
>>>>  
>>>> Farmer’s Almanac is …….
>>>>  
>>>> John Rudy
>>>> 781-861-0402
>>>> 781-718-8334 (cell)
>>>> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu>
>>>>  
>>>> 13 Hawthorne Lane <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>> Bedford, MA <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>   <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+%C2%A0++01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>01730-1047 <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>> <image001.png>
>>> 
>>>>  


>>>> From: Stephen Quatrano <stefanoq at gmail.com <mailto:stefanoq at gmail.com>> 
>>>> Sent: Monday, February 7, 2022 9:41 AM
>>>> To: john rudy <jjrudy1 at comcast.net <mailto:jjrudy1 at comcast.net>>
>>>> Cc: George Gamota <ggamota at stma-llc.com <mailto:ggamota at stma-llc.com>>; Lexington Computer Group New Address Distribution <LCTG at lists.toku.us <mailto:LCTG at lists.toku.us>>
>>>> Subject: Re: [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models
>>>>  
>>>> Kerry Emanuel is a Lexington resident, brilliant, and very well connected.  He speaks about climate modeling all the time and has spoken at Cary Library.  I don’t know him personally nor am I certain he’s speak to a group such as ours but it may be worth trying.  He’s really very, very interesting and accomplished.
>>>>  
>>>> https://emanuel.mit.edu/ <https://emanuel.mit.edu/>
>>>>  
>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Emanuel <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Emanuel>
>>>>  
>>>> SQ
>>>>  
>>>>  
>>>> 
>>>>> On Feb 7, 2022, at 9:36 AM, john rudy <jjrudy1 at comcast.net <mailto:jjrudy1 at comcast.net>> wrote:
>>>>>  
>>>>> I have been advocating this for some time but have been unable to locate a speaker
>>>>> John
>>>>>  
>>>>> John Rudy
>>>>> 781-861-0402
>>>>> 781-718-8334 (cell)
>>>>> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu>
>>>>>  
>>>>> 13 Hawthorne Lane <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>> Bedford, MA <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>   <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+%C2%A0++01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>01730-1047 <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>>> <image001.png>
>>>>>  


>>>>> From: LCTG <lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us <mailto:lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us>> On Behalf Of George Gamota
>>>>> Sent: Sunday, February 6, 2022 11:58 PM
>>>>> To: 'Lexington Computer Group New Address Distribution' <LCTG at lists.toku.us <mailto:LCTG at lists.toku.us>>
>>>>> Subject: [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models
>>>>>  
>>>>> It would be good if we could find someone to speak about Climate Models
>>>>> https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/02/crisis-for-the-climate-models.php <https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/02/crisis-for-the-climate-models.php>
>>>>> George
>>>>> ===============================================


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