[Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models
Dick
r.w.wagner at verizon.net
Mon Feb 7 13:17:06 PST 2022
Perhaps to whet your appetites, try these links to get started:
https://weather.us/model-charts and/or
https://www.weather.gov/rnk/models
I have been trying to understand the background information regarding
the 2021 Noble Prize in Physics ("For Groundbreaking Contributions to
Our Understanding of Complex Physical Systems"; climate being one of the
systems recognized and weather being subsumed within climate) since the
prize was announced. I am still in the midst of it; it's difficult for
me to comprehend without quite a bit of thought and I don't spend a lot
of time with this subject.
Happy hunting!
Dick
On 2/7/2022 3:08 PM, john rudy wrote:
>
> There are two separate issues
>
> 1. Kerry IS an excellent speaker. I have had him twice at BOLLI,
> once at our group, and he talked at the temple. All talks were
> about global warming. I would be happy to listen to him again
> 2. The question from George that kicked off this current discussion
> was about weather models. For 5 years I have attempted to get a
> speaker on this and finally got a weather forecaster to talk at
> BOLLI. I was out of the country when he spoke but was told that
> the talk was poor and didn’t address the issue.
>
> I have been trying to get a speaker who can discuss
>
> * Why we always hear of various models that have different results.
> What makes them different
> * With computers 1000 times more powerful than 30 years ago how much
> better are the forecasts
> * Is the improvement primarily for really bad things, like
> hurricanes, where the cost of a mistake is large
>
> Dick Wagner says that there was a 2021 Nobel Price in this area. I
> have not looked into it
>
> With all of our members I would hope to have some contacts and Harry,
> I would love to have you pursue Kerry. I suspect he remembers me.
>
> John
>
> John Rudy
>
> 781-861-0402
>
> 781-718-8334 (cell)
>
> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu>
>
> 13 Hawthorne Lane
>
> Bedford, MA 01730-1047
>
> *From:* LCTG <lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us> *On
> Behalf Of *Harry Forsdick
> *Sent:* Monday, February 7, 2022 3:00 PM
> *To:* Steve Isenberg <smisenberg at gmail.com>
> *Cc:* Lexington Computer Group New Address Distribution
> <LCTG at lists.toku.us>
> *Subject:* Re: [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models
>
> I think Kerry Emanuel would be an excellent speaker. Check out this
> video to understand his style of delivering accessible talks:
>
> https://www.nuclearmatters.com/as_a_matter_of_fact_dr_kerry_emanuel_interview
>
> Regards,
>
> — Harry
>
> On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 2:43 PM Steve Isenberg <smisenberg at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> If we do have a recording of him, it would be listed on the group
> wiki page at https://LCTG.toku.us <https://LCTG.toku.us>, or you
> can visit our YouTube channel, see the link also on the group wiki
> page.
>
> -steve
>
> On Mon, Feb 7, 2022 at 2:32 PM Stephen Quatrano
> <stefanoq at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Do we have a recording of Kerry?
>
> SQ
>
>
>
> On Feb 7, 2022, at 11:38 AM, john rudy
> <jjrudy1 at comcast.net> wrote:
>
> Kerry talks about Global Warming and associated subjects.
> What I was looking for is a discussion of the various
> weather models used to forecast the weather for the next
> two weeks. We have had him talk to us and he is excellent
>
> The groundhog, I just learned, is accurate 40% of the time
> in the last 100 years
>
> Farmer’s Almanac is …….
>
> John Rudy
>
> 781-861-0402
>
> 781-718-8334 (cell)
>
> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu>
>
> 13 Hawthorne Lane
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> Bedford, MA
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g><https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+%C2%A0++01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>01730-1047
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> <image001.png>
>
> *From:* Stephen Quatrano <stefanoq at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Monday, February 7, 2022 9:41 AM
> *To:* john rudy <jjrudy1 at comcast.net>
> *Cc:* George Gamota <ggamota at stma-llc.com>; Lexington
> Computer Group New Address Distribution <LCTG at lists.toku.us>
> *Subject:* Re: [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models
>
> Kerry Emanuel is a Lexington resident, brilliant, and very
> well connected. He speaks about climate modeling all the
> time and has spoken at Cary Library. I don’t know him
> personally nor am I certain he’s speak to a group such as
> ours but it may be worth trying. He’s really very, very
> interesting and accomplished.
>
> https://emanuel.mit.edu/
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Emanuel
>
> SQ
>
> On Feb 7, 2022, at 9:36 AM, john rudy
> <jjrudy1 at comcast.net> wrote:
>
> I have been advocating this for some time but have
> been unable to locate a speaker
>
> John
>
> John Rudy
>
> 781-861-0402
>
> 781-718-8334 (cell)
>
> John.rudy at alum.mit.edu <mailto:John.rudy at alum.mit.edu>
>
> 13 Hawthorne Lane
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> Bedford, MA
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g><https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+%C2%A0++01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>01730-1047
> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/13+Hawthorne+Lane+Bedford,+MA+01730-1047?entry=gmail&source=g>
>
> <image001.png>
>
> *From:* LCTG
> <lctg-bounces+jjrudy1=comcast.net at lists.toku.us> *On
> Behalf Of *George Gamota
> *Sent:* Sunday, February 6, 2022 11:58 PM
> *To:* 'Lexington Computer Group New Address
> Distribution' <LCTG at lists.toku.us>
> *Subject:* [Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] Climate Models
>
> It would be good if we could find someone to speak
> about Climate Models
>
> https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/02/crisis-for-the-climate-models.php
>
> George
>
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> --
>
> Harry Forsdick <http://www.forsdick.com/resume/>
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