[Lex Computer & Tech Group/LCTG] FW: NOAA 3-Day Forecast - Aurora

[smitausa at gmail.com]

Next Aurora Forecast

 

Cheers,

Smita Desai

 

From: SWPC Product Subscription Service <SWPC.Products at noaa.gov> 
Sent: Sunday, May 12, 2024 8:31 AM
Subject: NOAA 3-Day Forecast

 

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2024 May 12 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
 
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
 
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale
G5).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2024 is 7.67 (NOAA Scale
G4).
 
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2024
 
             May 12       May 13       May 14
00-03UT       6.67 (G3)    5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       7.00 (G3)    6.67 (G3)    4.33     
06-09UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    3.00     
09-12UT       3.67         5.67 (G2)    3.00     
12-15UT       5.00 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    2.67     
15-18UT       6.00 (G2)    3.67         2.00     
18-21UT       7.67 (G4)    3.00         2.00     
21-00UT       6.67 (G3)    3.00         3.00     
 
Rationale: G4 (Extreme) storm levels are expected on 12 May due to CME
impacts. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely to continue into the
early hours of 13 May. Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is
likely on 14 May as conditions from the the previous days wane.
 
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
 
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
 
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024
 
              May 12  May 13  May 14
S1 or greater   99%     60%     60%
 
Rationale: S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms are expected through 14 May
due to activity originating from AR 3634.
 
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
 
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 11 2024 1525 UTC.
 
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2024
 
              May 12        May 13        May 14
R1-R2           95%           95%           95%
R3 or greater   75%           75%           75%
 
Rationale: R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts are expected all
three days.

 

  _____  

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